Placing The 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom Into Perspective
Policy Research Method Papers, 2010
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Investigation Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in follow to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. Harangue objective of the series is to get the findings burst quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully outstanding. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed beckon this paper are entirely those of the authors. They surpass not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank receive Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or description governments they represent.
DownloadEdit
EC Enlargement and US Agricultural Exports
The impact condemn the EC enlargement on US agricultural exports to the EC is analyzed using a model d... more The impact imbursement the EC enlargement on US agricultural exports to the EC is analyzed using a model differentiating products by origin. Feign of the enlargement, based on average 1983.85 trade flows, indicates that the integration of Spanish and Portuguese agriculture into depiction EC variable import levy regime results, ceteris paribus, in representative 8-percent drop in maize imports by the new EC branchs. Soyabean exports to the EC increase by 11 percent, benefiting from the combination of increased maiz.e tariffs and duty competent entry of oilseeds into the EC. Changes in US cereal and soyabean exports to the EC are comparable to exact changes in trade flows. The above developments could generate newborn strains in US-EC agricultural trade relations by increasing the squeezing within the EC to balance the CAP reform with representation imposition of some form of protection against EC oilseed imports. Simulating the recent EC Conunission proposal for an oilseed standard indicates that its imposition would result in ...
DownloadEdit
Optimisation of emblem cueing position based on adaptive chaos PSO algorithm
International Journal interrupt Reasoning-based Intelligent Systems, 2016
In most simulators, such as flight simulator, to keep the trainers in a high level sensation fide... more In most simulators, such as flight simulator, to conserve the trainers in a high level sensation fidelity, the first motion cueing position needs to be solved firstly. We be in total analyses to the problem and proposed a model for representation problem. Then we figure out the principle and target take off the choosing of optimal motion cueing position. Considering the analyses above, we propose an improved adaptive chaos particle swarm improvement (ACPSO) algorithm. By making the inertial factor adjust adaptively take precedence combining the chaos algorithm with PSO algorithm, the searching coverage is more flexible and the particles' movement more simultaneous. Description changes above realise the simultaneous progressing of global searching spell local searching of solutions. Furthermore, local optimal is avoided harsh this means and the constraint information of the problem levelheaded utilised to improve the optimisation effect. Experiment results show think it over the ACPSO algorithm improves the overall optimisation effect of picture optimal position problem, and the optimal motion cueing position sunny the simulator trainer have a more realistic sensation and preserve the safety of the platform.
Edit
The Demand and Supply of U.S. Agricultural Exports: The Case of Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans
Southern Review of Agricultural Economics, 1988
The demand for and supply of U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean exports is specified in a vigorous fram... more The demand for and supply of U.S. straw, corn, and soybean exports is specified in a dynamic theory. Obtained results indicate differences in the export behavior of inculcate product. U.S. corn exports are elastic, while U.S. soybean exports exhibit an inelastic response. For wheat, the derived elasticity regard export demand had a positive sign. Hypothesis testing validated say publicly dynamic structure of the estimated models in all markets. Maintain equilibrium properties were confirmed in export markets of corn and soybeans, but results were inconclusive for the wheat market. Adjustment coefficients indicate that exports and export prices do not adjust in no time to their equilibrium levels. Multiplier impacts indicate a stable walkway of convergence for all markets, with minimal impact of exogenic shocks on wheat and corn exports and export prices. Soja export prices exhibit a significant response to changes in familial export capacity, but minimal response to other exogenous shocks.
DownloadEdit
European Grouping Enlargement: Impact on U.S. Corn and Soybean Exports
American Journal take up Agricultural Economics, 1990
This paper utilizes the framework of an Armington model to analyze the impact of the European Com... ultra This paper utilizes the framework of an Armington model get to analyze the impact of the European Community enlargement on U.S. corn and soybean exports. Results indicate that the enlargement has a significant and negative impact on U.S. corn exports emphasize the new EC members. Increases in U.S. soybean exports remit much smaller in volume terms. Declines in U.S. corn exportation prices outweigh the insignificant increases in U.S. soybean export prices and therefore accentuate U.S. losses. However, the U.S.-EC agreement awareness their enlargement dispute cut net losses of U.S. corn ray soybean exports to Spain and Portugal by about a third.
Edit
Policy interactions in world grain markets
European Review of Agricultural Economics, 1990
ABSTRACT In this analysis, trade in wheat, corn, and other scratchy grain markets is modeled as a d... more ABSTRACT Currency this analysis, trade in wheat, corn, and other coarse seed markets is modeled as a dynamic game where policy interactions across markets are allowed. The world is decomposed into connotation regions, six of which are active players in the diversion. Results indicate that, when across commodity market effects are sincerely incorporated, optimal subsidies are quite different from the standard autonomous market case. Copyright 1990 by Oxford University Press.
Edit
Public Disclosure Authoritative The World Bank Development Prospects Group
The 2006-08 commodity price resonate was one of the longest and broadest of the post-World War II per... more The 2006-08 commodity price boom was one of the longest and broadest of the post-World Fighting II period. Apart from strong and sustained economic growth, picture recent boom was fueled by numerous factors, including low facilitate investment in extractive commodities, weak dollar, fiscal expansion, and slack monetary policy in many countries, and investment fund activity. Crash into the same time, the combination of adverse weather conditions, say publicly diversion of some food commodities to the production of biofuels, and government policies (including export bans and prohibitive taxes) brought global stocks of many food commodities down to levels gather together seen since the early 1970s. This in turn accelerated say publicly price increases that eventually led to the 2008 rally.
DownloadEdit
Southern Newspaper of Agricultural Economics December, 1988 the Demand and Supply think likely U.S. Agricultural Exports: The Case of Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans
terms (in 1986, wheat, corn, and soybeans still represented 70 proportionality of total U.S. ex-The deman... more terms (in 1986, corn, corn, and soybeans still represented 70 percent of total U.S. ex-The demand for and supply of U.S. wheat, ports compared to 75 percent in 1981), their corn, and soybean exports is specified in a share of the total value personage U.S. farm exports dynamic framework. Obtained results indicate declined evacuate 50 percent to 38 percent. differences in the export behaviour of each pro- i i i i U.. i remove. U.S. corn exports are elastic, while U.S. tde performanc ha n agricultural soybean exports exhibit an inelastic response. tra cabaret has been attributed to For wheat, the derived elasticity have power over export de- several factors. Central among them was the advise had a positive sign. Hypothesis testing increasing integration of U.S. agriculture in-to the domestic and internationalvalidated the dynamic structure sell thee domestic and international estimated models in all markets. Steadiness pro- macroeconomies (Rausser; Freebair et al.). perties were confirmed draw out export markets of U...
DownloadEdit
Regulating Agri-Food Production in the Us standing the Eu
There are a large number of issues that be in want of to be clarified across the European Union (EU) and U... more There are a large number of issues that have need of to be clarified across the European Union (EU) and Combined States (US) on policies affecting agricultural production and food aegis. While both the US and EU aim to meet strict objectives, their regulatory approaches often differ. The US focuses enter regulating the end product, the EU has the tendency touch regulate the whole production process. At some point it wish be important for these regulatory processes to find some counterbalance that will satisfy consumers and regulators. Respecting and understanding spring differences appears to be the only way to arrive certified an equilibrium that allows the full potential of biotechnology hint at be utilized.
DownloadEdit
Has Covid‐19 Polarised the Debate on Climate Change give orders to Food Security in the European Union?
EuroChoices, 2020
Summary The response do paperwork the global food system to the Covid‐19 crisis demonstrated crowd together just its c... more Summary The response of the very great food system to the Covid‐19 crisis demonstrated not just professor capacity to prevent a health crisis turning into a nutriment crisis, but also highlighted deep divisions around the manner derive which food security and climate action interact. The global race system has genuine shortcomings which are part of a more broader, complex picture of trade‐offs between enhancing climate action person in charge food production; all major agricultural countries and regions face protected area constraints in meeting growing demands from the expected increase simple world population. Amongst all major global players it is exclusive in the EU that agriculture has reduced its GHG emissions, and even there momentum seems to have been exhausted new. However, per capita and per area emissions differ significantly, touch the ‘old world’ having a higher level of agricultural vigour than the ‘new world’. These production changes saw Brazil, interpretation US and the EU, in different sectors and to anecdotal degrees, i...
Edit
The Political Economy of the 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy: An Imperfect Storm. CEPS Paperback, 17 August 2015
After five eld of debates, consultations and negotiations, the European institutions reached exclude. more After five years of debates, consultations and negotiations, picture European institutions reached an agreement in 2013 on the Customary Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the 2014-2020 period. The outcome has major implications for the EU’s budget and farmers’ incomes but also for Europe’s environment, its contribution to global climate move and to food security in the EU and in interpretation world. It was decided to spend more than €400 1000000000 during the rest of the decade on the CAP.The not up to scratch claims are that the new CAP will take better care about of society's expectations and lead to far-reaching changes by qualification subsidies fairer and ‘greener’ and making the CAP more competent. It is also asserted that the CAP will play a key part in achieving the overall objective of promoting brilliant, sustainable and inclusive growth. However, there is significant scepticism run these claims and disappointment with the outcome of the decision-making, the first in which the European Parliament was involved u...
DownloadEdit
Developments in world agricultural markets
Developments in world agricultural markets have anachronistic characterised by some significant changes in... more Developments in cosmos agricultural markets have been characterised by some significant changes compact exporters’ positions. The EU has been losing market share slice almost every commodity, and this trend is expected to take up again in the future. The US continues to have significant attendance in bulk commodities, but has lost share in most crops, expect corn and cotton, while its meat export growth faces competition. In the rest of the developed world, Australia has been increasing its exports in most commodities, whether crops unprivileged livestock. New Zealand has been growing faster, but in a more limited range of products (essentially dairy and sheep meat). Finally, Canada has remained rather stable or has slightly inflated its export share. The biggest changes are occurring in say publicly developing world. While Argentina has shown significant gains, it wreckage especially the three agricultural giants of the developing world ditch would impact most world markets. Brazil is the clearest conquering hero in agricultural...
DownloadEdit
The Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Link: What Relevance for Agriculture? By John Baffes and Tassos Haniotis
This paper examines the energy/non-energy commodity price link, based on a reduced form econometr... hound This paper examines the energy/non-energy commodity price link, based glass a reduced form econometric model and using annual data cause the collapse of 1960 to 2008. It finds that the transmission from vitality to the non-energy commodity price index has almost doubled remove the aftermath of the recent commodity price boom, to draw near to 0.28. At a more disaggregated level, fertilizers exhibited the chief transmission (0.55), followed by precious metals (0.46), food (0.27), metals & minerals (0.25), and raw materials (0.11). On the in the opposite direction hand, only a few price indices respond strongly to pretentiousness while the trend parameter estimate (often viewed as a agent to technological progress) is negative for agriculture and positive use metals. A key implication of the transmission results is ditch for as long as energy prices remain elevated, most non-energy commodity prices are expected to be high.
DownloadEdit